Is Trumpcare Dead? Was it ever really alive?
Senators Mike Lee and Jerry Moran said yesterday that they would not vote for the Better Care Reconciliation Act, effectively killing the legislation. As anybody who has been following this story would have predicted, President Trump reacted publicly on Twitter on Tuesday morning, vowing to let the ACA marketplace collapse and then rewrite the plan later.
Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell attempted a quick punt this morning, calling for an immediate Senate vote on the House bill, a trick card that if it worked, would give Republicans two years to work things out.
Unfortunately for McConnell, it probably won’t.
The White House sees the failure as saying more about the political establishment in Washington than itself, which shouldn’t be all that surprising. Caught up in the drama of the Watergate-Russia emails-Trump family narrative, major media outlets like the Washington Post and the New York Times see a historic defeat rather than a temporary setback. That may or may not turn out to be true. Predictably, conservative commentators and the alt-right believe the defeat says more about the mainstream media and the Deep State than it does about the Trump Presidency. For their part, Democrats clearly think they have found their issue and can be expected to continue to exploit it using legislative Viet Cong tactics (attack on social media, melt into the jungle, lob snarky public Molotov cocktails) to punish Republicans and keep the story on the front page.
This much is clear. Instead of repealing and replacing Obamacare, the GOP now has to rewrite and replace its own plan. Doing that would be difficult under the best of circumstances, but in the current climate in Washington it is difficult to see how it would be possible without a major shift in the political landscape.
All of this is bad news for hospitals and health plans and a frightening development for consumers, although not the really bad news some had feared. The President’s threat to let the insurance marketplace die and then “figure it out” sounds good as a rallying cry to the troops on social media, but is not the kind of thing that investors and CEOs like to hear. Realistically though, at this point everybody knew that the uncertainty would likely continue through the year (best case) or a year or longer (worst case) as the gridlock in Washington plays out. As depressing and frustrating as it is that the uncertainty will continue, by this point the industry is used to it. Insiders will continue to look for ways to minimize risk and for business opportunities to capitalize on the uncertainty.
Trump’s plan to allow the insurance exchanges to collapse is the kind of confrontational talk Trump and his advisors relish. In theory, the idea could work. There are in fact signs that it already is, as major insurers leave the marketplace and consumers hesitate before committing to expensive insurance policies. In reality, however, the collapsing exchanges will create a political crisis that is even worse than the current one, with news cycle after news cycle dominated by stories of terminally ill cancer patients and parents with horrible diseases, and terrified voters besiege their representatives with pleas for help. At this point, it will be difficult for the party doing the collapsing to point at the other side and say “It was them. They did it!”
Moderates see some sort of brilliantly crafted compromise as the obvious solution. In any place and time other than Washington in the year 2017 that would probably be the case. Unfortunately, despite what you’re hearing, it probably isn’t going to happen. Extremists on both sides are unlikely to accept anything less than complete and total victory. With the President on hand to reliably blow up negotiations with ill considered tweets and taunts, all of the pieces are in place to ensure that the healthcare reform story continues season after season.
If you are a person with a serious pre-existing condition or somebody facing a life threatening health condition, you can be forgiven for feeling extremely unwell right about now. Will you be able to pay for your drug prescriptions next year? Will you even be able to buy insurance coverage next year? If you are able to buy insurance, will that insurance coverage be worth the paper it is printed on? If by some miracle, you are in fact able to buy insurance coverage, will some insane person take it away from you at some later date in time?
John Irvine is the editor of the Health Care Blog. He can be followed on Twitter at @thcbstaff.